Be Stupid
Seriously, be stupid when you look at something; approach it with a totally blank mind.
I picked up this phrase from Edward Dolnick’s The Forger’s Spell– a book that outlines one of the greatest art forgeries of the last century and explains how a mediocre Dutch painter passed his own works off as Vermeers. His success was due to his psychological manipulation, and he bamboozled many authoritative art historians.
It is a good reminder lesson that a little bit of knowledge can be a dangerous thing, and a lot of knowledge can be dangerous, too.
(When you look at the paintings, can you tell which one is a fake?)
The object lesson of this story is confirmation bias. We often see what we want to see. We tell ourselves that we make decisions based on evidence when we in fact skew the results by accepting welcome news without a second glance and subject unwelcome news to further questioning.
While confirmation bias is often linked to beliefs which are based upon prejudice, faith, or tradition rather than on empirical evidence, it does apply to scientific endeavors as well. Confirmation bias keeps researchers focused on things that tend to support rather than that those which might serve to refute a theory or point of view (good news, while we can’t assume that one person will work hard to refute his or her own theories, we can generally assume that someone else will).
When we realize that we have an unconscious inclination to weigh evidence selectively, we will have a better chance at recognizing and utilizing material we might have overlooked.
Approach test results with as open a mind as possible. Dig deeper – did a test really work? Macro level results can say one thing, and more detailed results another. The external environment is changing and so is your file – the test that won four years ago may lose today because your file has changed (e.g., fewer new donors or more lower dollar donors). What are the neutral and lost test results telling us? For longtime practitioners, balance “that never works” with “why we think it hasn’t worked and should we try again?” I am not saying ignore your knowledge, just be aware of the skew it can have.
-Becky Graninger
(Christ in the House of Martha and Mary)-http://www.essentialvermeer.com/vermeer_painting_part_one.html
(Christ at Emmaus, fake)-http://www.essentialvermeer.com/misc/van_meegeren.html
(The Astronomer)-http://www.essentialvermeer.com/vermeer_painting_part_one.html








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